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January 2011 and a pair of care whether fulfilled. "Quite unexpected is, many readers friends remember this matter, recently several readers remind me: this fell out right. Good, as follows to be aimed at ten prediction do judge. The author himself said of course not, especially please it-related name bo, five seasons to comment. KESO consulting founder for its historical context, can have corresponding commentary or argumentation.

Forecasting 1. Basic application of electronic mailbox: QQ more than netease became the first. QQ mailbox with QQ number superiority is the same name), as the QQ bound for integration IM, user experience smoother. There are three function: the first mailbox is brand radiation, the second is pulling portal news flow and the corresponding advertising, the third is to new product promotion and opponents suppressed.

KESO commentaries: E-mail will be for business users grist, but have the awareness and have the determination of enterprise is not much, in home, is mainly netease and tencent wrangling. In enterprise strategic, tencent gave E-mail more important position, this is because for high-end users, to tecent to promote the brand image has more strong will. This prediction is accurate and correct.

Comments: lose mailbox boss status netease, in 2010 micro [url=http://www.riad-marrakesh.fr]abercrombie[/url] Po's competition apparent lack of power.

Forecasting 2. Main business of portal/brand advertising: tencent over sohu to a second, sohu into old three. Due to the mailbox lose boss status, portal netease want to squeeze into fourth top three road before long.

KESO: tencent advertising revenue beyond sohu only occurs at a quarter (2010), in the second quarter after the third quarter was sohu overhauling. But tencent is gradually establish mainstream media brand image, this image of advertisers will produce long-term influence. Tencent permanently evade sohu, it is not a very distant. This prediction basic depend spectrum.

Comments: in micro broad war, sina in 2009 will lead the strength, tencent 2010 year follow-up. But sohu only at the end of the year, now send force dashed after disparity between. From micro Po will replace portal become Internet users access to the information first entry this perspective, sohu [url=http://www.rtnagel.com/airjordan.php]nike air jordan pas cher[/url] into old SanBan glitch.

Predict 3. Mainstream business online: tencent and grand; share would rise, market concentration improved. Reason is that tencent and grand USES platform strategy, over the past year spend big price eat into many new game.

KESO: obviously missing netease. DingLei than ChenTianQiao focus more on network game, plus world of warcraft strong brand influence, let every quarter netease in 2010, revenue more than grand scale after tencent, second. Market concentration in raising, however, tencent monolith trend more apparent (third quarter tencent a network game revenues, equal to the sum of netease and grand). Tencent, netease atop the online market, in 2010 into consolidation period. This [url=http://www.thehygienerevolution.com/hollister.php]hollister[/url] prediction basically wrong.

Comments: grand is platform, will also be included in DaZuoPin as the eternal tower ", but the operation is bad. And the diversification of grand group scattered the core layer of energy and resources. Instead, netease, introduced by another game, repair short board, and relative concentration, so instead of a grand. The conclusion is: market concentration is in improving, But if there is no basic operation capacity, don't focus, even temporarily leading platform will also lose.

Forecasting 4. The transformation of the company from content trend of times of sina: capital era. CaoGuoWei practice is to use the 10 years established got the brand and accumulation of capital, with numerous small vertical got the confederate, or in other words, the initiative participation to reproduce the market mechanism of small got to go. So sina of core ability change will be inevitable.

KESO: 2010 sina didn't have much big of capital operation, take back pair of sina management, boldly stepped up to the micro bo investment, from product to operation, from marketing to open platform, sina is slowly changing its single media genes. Sina micro bo become 2010 of the most influential Internet products, micro bo success nor let sina share prices climbed to a record high. This prediction is completely in the wrong.

Comments: sina really farewell content era, micro Po's rise make it into product era. Micro bo make sina first owns tens of users, are famous name and address of original, as well as the interest and relationship chain. Next, sina micro bo is likely to big push group chat function and QQ group competition, or launch IM replace MSN.

Prediction of 5. The transformation of the company from [url=http://www.tagverts.com/barbour.php]barbour deutschland[/url] product trend of times baidu: capital era. Baidu search, and no longer focus in all mature Internet business model are stepping on one feet. Way is more dependent on capital investment, and professional third-party alliance. Therefore the interviewees to start with the CaoGuoWei in capital and integrate the level of competition.

KESO: 2010, baidu is the largest increase technology stocks, a rise of share price. 135% [url=http://www.davidhabchy.com]barbour sale[/url] between This benefits from Google China search business exit, have also benefited from baidu new advertising system higher money efficiency. Baidu participated in the investment of strange arts mini-film cool days of on-line, can be considered as the baidu for high-speed growth of new business in an attempt to intervene way. But overall, baidu remains a rely on their own business and coalition partners way, strengthen and expand the market company. Baidu library and baidu application open platform on-line, proved baidu through product strong willingness to keep the user. This prediction is wrong.

Baidu search product line in disputed: marching largely to hold the original site, such as baidu library deal with grand literary attack; Open platform coping taobao, where to go, relocation guest etc to general vertical website search alternative. Meanwhile baidu for security software, real estate portal, game information portal, voice software, more even large portal many other fields of merger talks behind this is quite warm, insecurity, the layout and various fronts strategy as soon as possible.

Forecast six. The company VC/PE glycosylated. Internet companies began to make [url=http://www.gotprintsigns.com/abercrombiepascher/‎]abercrombie pas cher[/url] "small investment company - occupied territory - radiation brand and users - amplification itself as a mild" fixed strategy.

KESO: the parts of the company actually lied some seeds, but bears fruit is not satisfactory. And each company investment intention is not identical, support small company independent development of investment is not much, cast out money are very limited, completely unable to substitute VC role. By 2010, angels and VC is still Internet investment subject. This prediction basically too overrated.

Contentious: company VC change does not equate to will replace VC become main body of investment. Ali, snda, tencent, baidu negotiations for and mergers quite warm, they also fierce competition between. Surface is only a few such as tencent acquisition Discuz. Allegedly every company has a VP level executives specialized in m&a, and specialized investment team also among the expansion.

Forecasting the seven. The transformation of the company ctrip.com: intermediary dusk. Ctrip.com will be [url=http://www.sandvikfw.net/shopuk.php]hollister sale[/url] more substantial transformation, farewell to a simple intermediary positioning. See now strategy is: the first, shareholder upstream oligarchs, such as family hotel, by strengthening intermediary control, Second, enter with the hotel ticket is closely related to the tourism and travel service, ChongXingHua.

KESO: ctrip.com does experience some challenges, but is still little can ctrip.com multiple products pack sell one of companies. In addition, travel activities more big companies will still need professional travel intermediary services. In addition, of ctrip.com family-like, han atrium upstream quality resources such as shareholder and influential in big, also proof ctrip.com restaurants.the BTG markets continue to keep advantage position determination. There is no difference product profit tends to average is an inevitable trend, but said intermediary dusk, this was a little overwrought. This prediction is wrong.

Contentious: in the ticket and hotel reservation areas, clean out treasure and where to meet directly of C2C buyers sellers mode is growing rapidly, occupy ctrip.com B2C market share. From this Angle, as intermediary B2C indeed recede. But doubt is: physical field of B2C relative to the C2C growth more strongly. Reason is: the first, the real sales have logistics and warehousing bottlenecks, professional B2C excels. And ticket field full digital, B2C didn't the way barriers. Second, the real B2C upstream supply relative rich, intermediary integration function; And your tickets, hotel upstream is oligopoly upstream are also form [url=http://www.diecastlinks.co.uk]hollister outlet[/url] quickly oligarchs, intermediary weaker negotiating power. This is the reason shareholder ctrip.com upstream hotel.

Forecasting 8. New forces: sponsored and thunderbolt continue on edge. Main sponsored by tencent and happy nets, and ChenYiZhou himself than extrusion capital shorter than products and operation. Thunderbolt download services are new technology (cloud calculative) and new means of competition (copyright, original) of extrusion. At present only by "commercial mode superposition" for sustaining growth, not a basic [url=http://www.davidhabchy.com]barbour outlet[/url] vitality "business mode innovation".

KESO: everyone nets keep campus market problem is not big, but any expansion impulse, may suffer tencent before the threat of the. Sina micro bo of supernormal growth, but also to everyone nets formation pressure. Of course, suffer greater pressure, 08, until 2009 and the happy nets. Thunderbolt problem, the likelihood is a "business model paradox and the more you want to establish a business model, you will leave the more easily competition gap, even erosion users. This prediction roughly rely on chart.

Comments: happy nets in 2008, 2009 skyrocketed quickly after decline, the analysis for two reasons. One is not quick open platform and fully [url=http://www.sandvikfw.net/shopuk.php]hollister outlet sale[/url] to put the developer, stimulate their for happy pull users. 2 it is not in time for IM, in white-collar users replace MSN. That today's sina micro bo how to prevent repeating happy nets -- istakes? Answer the ready-made. A, sina has with several VC cooperation, known as the input hundreds of millions of RMB stimulate third-party open applications. Two, sina micro bo whether can integrate oneself chatting tools UC? Believe soon have the answer.

Forecasting 9. [url=http://www.mxitcms.com/abercrombie/]abercrombie milano[/url] New business micro Po: in China won't have such Twitter completely by only the micro bo rise of new faces, the market will such as a blog as four portal segmentation off, of course practice, such as a blog similar: the social micro bo walk tecent route, 2.0, Sina are walking media micro bo route, 1.0.

KESO: yes, independent micro Po's road go narrower more, sina micro bo unconventional. Tencent micro bo using QQ client advantage, JiQiZhiZhui, but in the operation of the means, not many new, is basically a copycat of sina, but the celebrity resources for, obviously lagged behind sina. This prediction basic depend spectrum.

Comments: two micro bo to 1.0 rags, rely on celebrity public. Pull But 2.0 elements will redoubt: celebrity and mass one-to-many concern can be moved, but celebrities of the circle and the [url=http://www.fibmilano.it]woolrich outlet[/url] mass, the relation between are not easy to move. Sina in the rapid development of micro groups for more communication function and industry thinks to should self-producing push IM replace MSN. Tencent are using QQ, Qzone products enhance public viscosity, to keep the user.

Six months ago with KESO in micro bo on micro Po's ultimate mode have short talks. KESO say: you are willing to listen to celebrities, or are willing to listen to radio next door aunt a Lao ke. Cheng said: I am willing to listen to radio side to the next door aunt celebrity, a Lao ke object is a Lao ke the celebrity.

Forecasting 10. Global: Facebook rankings will flow over Google into first. It will rewrite by Google rule of Internet pattern. Facebook will continue to Google in his massive retaining walls of behavior information outside, and continue and Google domination of third party web site login information right and behavior of discretion. Facebook circle person Google circle information, information is dead people are living, and people to create information.

KESO: Facebook traffic over the Google, but only in the American market in the global scope Google still ahead in Facebook, but be transcended estimate is soon. Facebook is constructing a vast empire, future Internet may include two parts: the Internet, and Facebook. More than that, it is countless Facebook feelers, extend the Internet every corner. But the largest empire grounding, actually have much solid, nobody knows. The Web is a Web page, and interconnection of the Internet, is people Facebook this scene amazing, also let a person fears. This prediction outrageous not far.

Comments: Facebook evokes fear. Well said!

Finally summary sentence. If the 2010 first chop event, when of micro bo rise. Next five things: Facebook reigns; Tencent open, Big companies more investment layout, Leading B2C e-commerce rapid expansion, 43,200 swelled.
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