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AMC Networks doesn't make killing in first day as public company
Looks like Wall Street had a similar reaction to AMC Networks Inc. first day like a public company as critics did towards the much-maligned season finale of AMC murder mystery "The Killing."
AMC Networks -- parent of cable channels AMC,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], WE,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], IFC and Sundance -- closed its first day like a public company at $39.85 a share,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], down 8.3% in the $43.50 price that shares were issued at Friday morning.
Cable programmers are usually considered hot commodities by Wall Street. However, AMC Networks, that was spun off by New York-based cable operator Cablevision Systems Corp., has some warning flags, according to Street analysts.
For starters, unlike two other publicly owned programming companies -- Discovery Communications and Scripps Networks Interactive Inc. -- AMC Networks doesn make or own big stakes in a lot of the programming that it continues its channels. AMC biggest shows include "Mad Men" and "Breaking Bad,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]," of which are from outside studios. That,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], wrote Barclays Capital analyst Anthony DiClemente,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], "places the organization in a disadvantage" when negotiating carriage handles distributors.
Furthermore, DiClemente thinks that AMC and WE,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], both biggest channels from the company, are already getting money from distributors in license fees and that the near future revenue growth will be modest.
"Based on our analysis,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], AMC and that we are 25% above market on their affiliate fee deals, while networks like HGTV, Food Network, Investigation Discovery and Nickelodeon are significantly below market," he explained.
There is a school of thought that AMC Networks is a takeover target. The Dolan family, which holds the majority of stock in Cablevision, also offers the majority of voting shares in AMC Networks. While family members may be seeking to sell, their large stake should discount the stock price, some analysts feel. Furthermore,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the Dolans are notoriously tough negotiators and may be hard to read by Wall Street.
Few are down on AMC. While DiClemente has a target price of $32 per share, BTIG analyst Rich Greenfield a study this week having a target price of $50 for AMC Networks. BTIG anticipates several potential suitors for that programmer,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], including Comcast NBCUniversal and Time Warner. Obviously, those companies already own substantial cable programming holdings and could not feel a necessity to add four smaller networks.
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