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Doctor Dividend's Comments Page 12
Jeff:Let's go back to the equation a second. You say that instead of dividend growth we should use earnings growth. I understand the argument because to have a profit is the reason the excess cash of dividends can be distributed. But I see it as this:The company has much more info than we will ever have. They have a much better idea, I believe,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], of what will happen with their company than I can ever do. A dividend increase is telling me how much they believe in the future prospects over the next 12 months. Since I may push down to 2.5% as an initial starting yield for a stock, as long as they are telling me an 8% minimum increase in the dividend,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], I am happy. (2.5+8 = 10.5% expected return for next year)Now here would be an interesting research study. Let's use PG to use an example. I am going with the assumption that the day PG announces their increase in the dividend is also the day they release their guidance for the upcoming year in revenue and EPS range. You can add money (on an annual basis) or subtract for that matter if you are in the silver years of distribution and change the tax rate to see what happens to your after-tax dividend money. It was this spreadsheet that convinced me this is the only way I can be successful at investing. I suppose a column could be added in terms of appreciation/depreciat. but like RAS, I am interested in the income component. You are combining different metrics (yield vs growth per year),[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], that it doesn't compute, but Rodger shows it gives a rough guide to what to expect if the market was rational. Using Rodger's example,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], our 4% yield stock announces a 4% increase in the yield, so 4% yield +4% dividend growth = 8% expected return in the next 12 months by the 4% yield plus 4% in capital appreciation. If we increase the yield enough over time and the stock goes nowhere, eventually we have a stock that can be yielding 6,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], 8, 10%. Look at Yahoo Finance. The dividend was miniscule, but they grew the dividend 30% per year for 20 years. If the stock had zero capital appreciation for 20 years, the yield would be close to 100% per quarter for the last 3 years!! It's not rational for that to occur for a sound, not-going-bankrupt-any. Is that of the overall value of your portfolio as of the closing price of today OR is it from PMI - personal money invested? I ask because I don't know how I should look at my portfolio. New money that is being put in to a new stock i am looking at my PMI. One company I own is about 8% PMI, but because of such great growth, and a very solid growing dividend, is about 22% of the overall portfolio value. If you are 55,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], 55-34 = 21,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], not 19. C is right. I am the same age. I knew dividends were important back in 2003, but just went for Hi-Yield,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], which were MREITS and thoroughly got destroyed. UPS in that 3 month time period hits a high of $50,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], and now at the end of the time period, happens to be at the low of $30. They average the 2 to get $40 and you get 5% off $40,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], so at $39.20 versus the $30 it is currently selling at? Wow,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], that's a bargain. I personally DRIP because I don't want to have the headache of trying to figure out which is the most undervalued at the current time. And Jim is slightly incorrect. The price can go down as long as the fundamentals don't change. Lower price = more shares to get more dividends. My guess is FTR's fundamentals have changed in 5 years, KO has not.5+, you are right. If an addendum to this article can be done to say in these 5 years, the stock value of FTR is down 22%, but the income provided has gone up X%, then that gives a more complete picture.
Nov 10 02:29 PMV:I don't understand some of your data. Target has raised their dividend for 43(?) years,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], according to the CCC list. Also, on a conference call in August, the CEO or CFO made the statement that they want their sales to be 100 billion in 2017 from 66 now, their EPS to be $8 in 2017 vs $4 now, and their annual dividend to be $3 by 2017 vs $1.20 now, corresponding to a roughly 17% CAGR of the dividend. On my spreadsheet, I call it PMI: Personal Money Invested. He said it was his trading platform, not his core platform. The stock zoomed way too fast and he took his PMI out and is letting the rest ride. As long as XOM doesn't have a BP fiasco,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], he's fine. Between my 5 accounts,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], I profited nearly 40K from HGIC in 5-6 months. I'll gladly take it, but like David's XOM,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], it wasn't expected. But I am a holder of stocks at heart.相关的主题文章：

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